1/11/2012

Snow Will Come!

Alright folks, we're all wondering the same thing: where the hell is the snow already? I'm as disappointed as a the next guy, this is my first winter in Utah and I'm geared up with a pass for the Beav and skins for rest of the Bear Rivers. At least I'm not missing any pow days while I'm teaching the kiddos.

But! According to the wizards over at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center , things are likley to shift towards the end of this month, and we here in northern Utah could be in a uniquely fortunate position for once. These shifting patterns are likley to hit to only dip down into the northern most ranges in Utah, potentially missing the Wasatch until later this winter. Our friends in Oregon also look to be in a sweet spot right now, as long as they can maintain cool enough temps. Observe:



I've been watching the 1-month and 3-month outlooks for a few weeks now, and the green band (above average precip) has begun dipping into Utah only in the last week. It's all got to do with what's happening in the central Pacific and a subsurface waved called the MJO. The MJO occurs during weak La Nina years (us right now), which should mean cooler than average temps, but it looks like warm air might be a concern for snow accumulation:



Let's hope the trend continues, as NOAA predicts, through the rest of the winter. Check out the 1-month forecast:



And the 3-month:

:


We Beaver skiers may be in for a treat. I'm just going to make the claim right now that the snow up here could be the best in the country (Schweitzer is another solid bet) around President's weekend. As long as we keep growing our beards and burning old skis. Fingers crossed.




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